But they warn that, if that fails, Iran is on a collision course with the west. European powers that opposed Trump’s maximum pressure during his first term have become more angry with Iran’s behaviour, including the continued expansion of its nuclear activity, its arms sales to Russia and its alleged targeting of citizens in the west.

Its nuclear programme is a rare area where Iran might claim to retain the initiative. Late last year Iran was producing around 7kg of uranium enriched to 60%—a stone’s throw from weapon’s grade—each month,