Every academic discipline has dirty secrets. Those of economics include the fact that some of our best known principles are based on very thin data. The Phillips curve, which is relevant to much of ...

We got another labor market indicator on Wednesday ahead of Friday’s jobs report. According to ADP, the private sector added 152,000 jobs in May. That’s fewer than were added in April, so a bit of a ...

Federal Reserve Board watchers and economic commentators continue to emphasize reliance on the Phillips Curve, the theory that asserts that higher inflation leads to lower unemployment, and that ...

The whole art and magic of the Phillips curve is about inflation, the rise in both prices and wages. The negative correlation which Phillips noted around 1960 turned to a positive, or stagflationary ...

About a half-century ago, my investment and economic mentor, Bradford F. Story, remarked that leaders at the Federal Reserve and Treasury would never succeed until they disabused themselves of the ...

Did they claim that it showed a permanent tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. James Forder says no. Is the intellectual history and self image of modern macro based entirely on the critique ...

The well-known Phillips curve describes inflation as a persistent process that depends on public expectations of future inflation and economic slack, a measure of how stretched the economy’s resources ...

The link between changes in U.S. inflation and the output gap has weakened in recent decades. Over the same time, a positive link between the level of inflation and the output gap has emerged, ...

The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points on September 18. The Fed’s twin mandate, keeping inflation under control and aiming for low unemployment is really in the service of the American ...

The surprise for 2018 will be how little inflation will rise. Markets are building a house of cards on plans for inflation to return as they bet on a return of the Phillips curve. The anticipated ...

Repeat after me, class: Growth does NOT cause inflation. Write it on the blackboard 100 times. For decades, the economics profession has been trying to tell us all just the opposite. They keep ...