Apple shares dropped Monday after an analyst warned of weaker iPhone 16 demand. The Fed begins its key two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to deliver an interest-rate cut when it concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday, but the size of that cut remains far from certain. Fed-funds futures traders have priced in a knife-edge decision between a standard cut of 25 basis points or an outsize move of 50 basis points.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and company are widely expected to lower interest rates on Sept. 18. The usual rule of thumb is that cuts